According to data from the Zhongshan Semiconductor Lighting Industry Association, the lighting industry in the first quarter of 2019 was slow in the ups and downs. In the international market, including the global economic slowdown, the UK's no agreement to leave the EU, the Sino-US trade negotiations are still continuing, the exchange rate fluctuations, etc., still have obvious impact in the industry; domestic channels are diversified, the new three board delisting tide continues, tax The fee reform has reduced the fees and benefits of the people, as well as the 5G commercial opening, the qualitative change of smart cities and smart street lamps; the scale of corporate strategy, including expansion, mergers and acquisitions, and the release of new products; the industry is confused about the future of the industry. There are also more expectations.
Affected by the big environment, and the LED lighting industry in Zhongshan City has always been characterized by a large number of enterprises, small single-scale, private-oriented, leading to low industrial concentration. In the first quarter of 2019, the LED output value reached 17.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%.
In the first quarter of 2019, the export value of LED lighting products in Zhongshan City was US$ 352 million, a slight increase of 2.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was lower than that in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and other regions. The overall market is consistent.
Industrial polarization has also led to the development of LED lighting application manufacturers towards large-scale and differentiated dual-track systems. Judging from the various industry data in the first quarter of this year, under the general situation of internal and external difficulties, no matter whether it is Zhongshan or the general lighting manufacturers in the city, the performance of the general lighting manufacturers is mostly lacking. The relatively good performance is mainly engaged in low households. Manufacturers in the wholesale and engineering custom market segments.
In addition, in response to the macroeconomic situation of Sino-US trade wars and weak domestic household consumption, the single-enterprise and even single-mode approach is limited. The overall macroeconomic growth rate slowed down, real estate was sluggish, the financing environment tightened, the real economy difficulties intensified, and the demand in the international market continued to be sluggish; the industry's competitive environment was fierce, and various cost rigidities rose, product homogeneity was serious, and malicious price competition, etc. problem. The predictions of the industry in 2019 are generally more pessimistic.
Compared with last year, the biggest trend of China’s macroeconomic trend since this year is that the downward pressure is more obvious. Whether it is in investment or consumption, especially in real estate, the convergence trend is very obvious, and the government’s economic goals for this year are also The downward adjustment was carried out, and the tax reduction was further strengthened.
Key words affecting industrial development at home and abroad in the first quarter
Keyword 1: Abnormal exchange rate changes
This year's strong RMB is not only reflected in the appreciation of the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar, but also in the strengthening of the multilateral exchange rate caused by the appreciation of the exchange rate of most major trading partners. The appreciation of the RMB since 2019 has a very different change from the past. Previously, the trend of the renminbi against the US dollar was reversed. The trend in the first three months of this year was that the renminbi exchange rate was relatively rare before. The renminbi not only appreciated against the US dollar, but also appreciated the overall appreciation of non-US currencies. In the process, the US dollar still appreciated. . The RMB exchange rate has rebounded, and it has a certain relationship with the improvement of foreign exchange supply and demand and the shock of the US dollar index. But the more important force is that the RMB exchange rate under the counter-cyclical control is “easy to rise and fall”.
Whether the exchange rate rises or falls sharply, the abnormally volatile fluctuations in the short-term exchange rate will disrupt the market price system and affect the export performance and gross profit margin of the enterprise.
Keyword 2: Sino-US trade negotiations
As of the end of March 2019, the eighth round of the China-US high-level economic and trade consultation has ended. The two sides discussed the texts of agreements on intellectual property protection, technology transfer, non-tariff measures, services, agriculture, trade balance, and implementation mechanisms, and made new progress. The two sides will conduct further consultations on the remaining issues under the guidance of the important consensus of the two heads of state. In the first quarter of 2019, the trade surplus expanded by 75. 2%, the net export contribution rate to economic growth reached 22.8%, compared with -0.6% last year. Negotiations in the first quarter were more positive, and Sino-US trade frictions are expected to ease, which is conducive to China's import and export trade growth. However, global economic growth will slow down, external demand may weaken, and the future trade surplus will face contraction pressure.
It was only from 0:00 on May 10 that Trump suddenly announced the initiation of an increase in tariffs. As the United States officially imposed import tariffs on China’s $200 billion products exported to the United States, the US-China trade dispute has intensified. The LED lighting industry has also brought a lot of shocks. The impact will be analyzed in the second quarter report.
Keyword 3: trillion package distribution
Labor costs, rent costs, and tax costs are rising every year, especially as raw material costs rise and become unstable. These factors make corporate profits more difficult to control, especially in traditional manufacturing such as lighting. The announcement of the two sessions this year shows that this year China will implement a tax reduction and reduction of nearly 2 trillion yuan. The main tax reduction and fee reduction will reduce the VAT rate on April 1 and formally enter the market. Under the background of the central government's policy of increasing tax reduction and fee reduction, local governments have started measures to reduce taxes and reduce fees, and promote the development and motivation of local enterprises.
From April 1st, the value-added tax rate of China's manufacturing industry will be reduced from 16% to 13%, and the current 10% tax rate for transportation, construction and other industries will be reduced to 9%; the tax rate of 6% will remain unchanged. .
The tax allowance has been raised from 30,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan, and has been raised to 1.2 million a year. This is very helpful for small and micro enterprises and entrepreneurs. At the same time, the relevant departments also stated that within two years, the national highway toll gates will be basically cancelled, and the non-stop express charges will be realized, congestion will be reduced, and a number of railway and port charges will be gradually cancelled or reduced.
Keyword 4: Whole category integration
The listed companies of lighting lighting are mainly concentrated in the fields of LED lighting and display. In the first quarter of 2019, the listed companies such as Op, NVC, Sanxiong Aurora, Foshan Lighting, Mulinsen, and Xuelaite became more and more “safe”, and they laid out the decorative lights monopoly, and the ambition to realize the full-scale specialty stores became more and more obvious.
For example, Ou Pu, which started from home lighting, has already been involved in commercial photos. At the same time, a series of decorative lights such as new Asian style, new Chinese style, European style and American style are gradually incorporated into its monopoly system. NVC also has similar follow-up actions; Foshan Lighting, which is famous for circulating light sources, , has already laid out the product line of home modern lamps, reorganizing the channel resources, and packaging the well-known Mulinsen also opened the decorative lamp monopoly aesthetic school.
In the field of home lighting in 2019, it is an area where major brands are competing for more and more. More and more listed companies are closely watching the more profitable lighting cakes, which will set off a new "lighting channel enclosure movement".
This directly affects the channels of many small and medium-sized lighting companies. The innovation of lighting style and material has reached a certain stage of maturity. In 2019, “original lighting” and “OEM lighting” will go hand in hand. Those small and medium-sized lighting companies that do not have their own characteristics and do not have R&D and design and have no capital strength can only gradually shrink. Even in the field of "OEM", the requirements of the big brands for the R&D, scale, and capital of the foundry are very high. After all, they have entered the brand elimination tournament with oversupply.
Keyword 5: Smart + Light Environment + Plant
In the first quarter of 2019, various professional and home exhibitions such as the Light Expo, Hong Kong Exhibition and Home Show were coming. The exhibition condensed the trend and trend of technology and design throughout the year and throughout the year.
It can be seen from the lighting professional exhibition that smart lighting and smart home are still the biggest themes. Many exhibitions set up smart zones, such as intelligent lighting solutions exhibited by graffiti intelligence, Jingfeng Mingyuan, Jingxun software, broadlink, and wit cloud, to show buyers a variety of new intelligent lighting systems, drives, lamps And various application scenarios.
Plant lighting is also much hotter than in previous years. International lighting manufacturers Philips, Osram, GE, Toshiba, Mitsubishi Chemical, Sharp, Panasonic, etc. have already rushed to lay out the field of plant lighting, and began to show their strengths.
At the same time, the attention and experience of the light environment, the major exhibitions have also increased a lot than before, especially in the light experience hall of the first- and second-line industry brands, combined with smart home, full spectrum technology.
Keyword 6: 5G Wisdom Internet of Things
According to the plans of the three major operators, China will realize the pre-commercialization of 5G networks in the first quarter of 2019, and realize the commercialization of 5G networks by 2020. 2019 is also known as the "5G first year". In the face of the advent of new technologies, Internet of Things (IoT) devices are also entering the 5G generation.
As more and more street lights and commercial infrastructure become smart LED lighting, emerging technologies are also integrated into other smart city and indoor lighting applications, each with its own IP location.
In addition to 5G smart street lights, another trend is to integrate smart home devices into entertainment, security surveillance and voice control products. Smart lighting for 5G commercial and home applications continues to grow, with an estimated $30 billion in business opportunities by 2022, well above the $7.2 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 41%.
At the same time, the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "Technical Outline of the Construction of the Smart City Time and Space Big Data Platform (2019 Edition)", and once again promoted the pace of the Wisdom Internet of Things in the home, outdoor and urban landscapes from the height of the policy. Although the mass of smart cities is still small, it will lead the technical direction and application direction of intelligent lighting development.
Keyword 7: E-commerce retail rapid
Keyword 7: E-commerce retail rapid
The study predicts that in the first quarter of 2019, global e-commerce sales will reach a new high of 1.1 trillion US dollars, an increase of 45%, indicating that the e-commerce market has been steadily rising.
In China, the scale of mobile e-commerce users has grown to 225 million in the first quarter of 2019, with huge potential for consumption.
Regardless of b2c, c2c, b2b, global e-commerce sales in the first half of 2019 are increasing year by year. China is a manufacturing powerhouse, and the new retail sales model that combines online and offline is even more powerful for individuals and manufacturers.
Lighting lighting, as a traditional manufacturing industry, will be more than just a trend, but a standard, in 2019 and in the next few years. At the same time, as customers' expectations for the individualization of lighting lighting become higher and higher, personalization will become an important criterion for the 2019 lamp e-commerce business.
Keyword 8: Lighting procurement front
Lighting lighting is a subcategory of the home sector. From home exhibitions in Dongguan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, etc., which took place in March 2019, to the Guangzhou Customs Exhibition and the Shanghai Construction Expo, many home furnishing companies are competing to seize the market.
What is the whole package? It includes basic equipment, hard-packed to soft-packed, and even electrical appliances and lightings are covered, realizing the whole house-packing and bag-keeping.
According to the "White Paper on China's Home Furnishing Design Trends", the proportion of "family-friendly" is 20.81% in the decoration, and 39.6% in the "full house", among which the younger generation is selected for the whole house. The main, after 85% accounted for 43.57%, after 95 accounted for 38.93%.
The resulting cross-border purchase, all-category, and one-stop style will have a greater impact on the hardware and building materials such as lighting and craft accessories. Home improvement company, hardcover collection will intercept orders 8-12 months in advance. This is a fatal blow to the habitual business model, especially for manufacturers without R&D and design capabilities, without engineering and program capabilities.
Of course, "three points depend on products, seven points depend on service." The production and delivery of products is only a small part of the transaction process. How to make consumers experience comfortable and caring services is also an urgent problem for home improvement companies and platforms. Perhaps this is the survival breakthrough for lighting manufacturers?
Keyword 9: "Fleeing" new three board
In 2018, more than 20 new three-plate companies, such as Juke Lighting, Shengpu Optoelectronics, and Shiyuhong, announced that they have terminated their listings. In 2019, including Jingke Electronics, five lighting companies have chosen to leave the new three board, and the delisting tide continues to be staged!
Not only the lighting industry, but also a number of pan-home industries such as paints, furniture, home textiles, smart homes, and decoration, and the same thing happens.
At present, the number of new three-board lighting enterprises has exceeded 160. Due to its low valuation, lack of market liquidity, weak financing capacity, lack of concept overdraft, cost increase, and many problems in the system, the climax has retreated. The strong contrast between the LED “returning the market” and the “swarming” of the original ones makes people feel a lot of emotions.
Of course, there are also better developments in the New Third Board, such as "Jingke Electronics." This type of delisting is often the case that the New Third Board is no longer able to meet its ambitions and must focus on the A-share market with greater potential.
In the final analysis, regardless of “escape” or “do not escape”, the development of each enterprise and the strategic thinking are different, and the choice is different. But in the heart of the enterprise, the New Third Board is no longer the best destination.
Keyword 10: 1% increase in exports
In the first quarter of 2019, China's exports of LED lighting products reached US$3.264 billion, an increase of 1.02% compared with the same period of 2018. Among them, only February decreased by 10.06% year-on-year, and January increased by 5.79% year-on-year. In March, it increased by 3.85%.
From the perspective of regional structure in the first quarter of 2019, the United States and the European Union are still the main export areas for LED lighting products in China. Among them, the United States accounted for 26.11%, still the largest overseas market for LED lighting products in China. In the first quarter of 2019, the total export value reached 852 million US dollars, down 8.16% from the same period of 2018, and the market share decreased by 2.16 percentage points; China's second largest market for LED lighting exports, the market accounted for 21.37%, compared with the same period of 2018, an increase of 9.41%, the market share increased by 1.67 percentage points; the Middle East region accounted for 9.05% of China's lighting exports, market share increased by 3.29 The percentage points, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are the highlights of the market.
According to the customs data already in hand, in the first quarter of 2019, there were a total of 9112 enterprises exporting LED lighting products in China. A total of 10 enterprises exported more than 20 million US dollars. Among them, the top three of the production enterprises are Zhangzhou Lida Xinguang Electronics. Technology Co., Ltd., Xiamen Sunshine Enner Lighting Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tongshida Lighting Co., Ltd.
Industry Development Overview 01
From the perspective of the regional layout of the domestic LED industry development, China's LED industry has formed five major regions, namely the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim, the Bengbu and the Midwest. More than 90% of LED companies are located in these five regions. Basically formed a relatively complete LED industry system from upstream chip, extension to midstream package to downstream application, and based on the construction of national LED industry base, initially formed a unique industrial cluster.
Among them, the Pearl River Delta region is a key gathering area for the packaging and application of LED industry in the middle and lower reaches. It has more than 70% of LED middle and lower-end packaging and application enterprises in the country. It is the most concentrated area of LED industry in China. It has formed from the back cover material and epitaxial wafer. Chips, packages, and application-complete industrial chains.
At present, the LED industry base in Guangdong Province has formed a “1+6” development pattern, which is based on Shenzhen's national LED industry base, and six provincial LED industry bases such as Zhongshan, Foshan, Jiangmen, Huizhou, Dongguan and Guangzhou.
Zhongshan is an industrial cluster base of traditional lighting + LED lighting, and has an absolute central position in the national lighting and lighting industry. Among them, Guzhen Town has the reputation of “China Lighting Capital”, Xiaolan Town has the title of “China Semiconductor Intelligent Lighting Innovation Base”, and Henglan Town has the honor of “China Lighting Lighting Manufacturing Base”.
In the Guangdong LED industry system, Zhongshan has obvious development advantages. In 2018, the LED output value reached 70.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 2.3%, accounting for 11.90% of Guangdong's total LED output value, ranking third in the province. In the first quarter of 2019, the LED output value reached 17.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%.
As one of Zhongshan's strategic emerging industries, the LED industry attaches great importance to and pays attention to the development of the LED industry. In recent years, Zhongshan LED industry has been running steadily and the quality of development has been steadily improved. Currently, it has formed Mulinsen and Yiguang Electronics. , Ou Pu Lighting, Huayi Lighting, Pinshang Lighting, Auman Shares, Hongbao Shares, Guanya Lighting, Taiteng Lighting, Laiya Lighting, Langeng Lighting, Stereo Optoelectronics, Tiansheng Hi-Tech and other key enterprises, With a “one district and four towns” (ie Torch Development Zone and Guzhen Town, Henglan Town, Xiaolan Town, Banfu Town) as the core development zone, there is a considerable scale of LED industry cluster.
Industrial development scale 02
From 2014 to 2018, the scale of LED industry in Zhongshan increased from 38.68 billion yuan to 70.3 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 14.88%. The growth rate is much higher than the industry average level in the same period. As a strategic emerging industry in Zhongshan, the LED industry is Zhongshan. Overall economic growth has played a significant role in promoting.
As can be seen from the above table, in the past four years, Zhongshan's LED output value has been increasing in the first quarter. The growth rate in the first two years has reached double digits. In 2018, the growth rate has only single digits, while in 2019, there has been a slight decline.
The reason is that because of the sluggish domestic real estate, the consumption capacity of terminal lamps has slowed down. Second, due to the maturity of LED technology, the unit price of single products has declined year-on-year under the scale effect. Third, the economic recovery of major exporting countries has been slow, and demand has become more and more demanding. In the light, at the same time, the price sensitivity is higher than in previous years; the fourth is that LED has experienced explosive growth for many years, and the replacement of traditional light sources has entered a stable period; the fifth is that the trade war is still in the haze, and the larger market orders such as North America are reduced or purchased. slow.
At the same time, given the factors of the traditional Chinese New Year holiday in the first quarter, if there is no big policy or situation, it is predicted that the second quarter will be better than the first quarter.